Hurricane Tracker Update

Hurricane Tracker 2022

Ian is now a Tropical Storm within the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to change into a powerful hurricane within the Gulf of Mexico subsequent week. Barring any main monitor shifts, most if not the entire impacts from the storm will keep to the south and east of Alabama. Get the most recent replacement on the tropics within the video above.

By early Sunday, Ian is predicted to succeed in the western portion of the ridge, and the storm ought to flip west-northwestward, after which northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that point, Ian is forecast to show north-northwestward and northward across the western portion of the ridge. This can convey Ian close to or over Western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Late within the interval, the steerage signifies the storm will start to recurve towards Florida.


As talked about earlier, the monitor fashions are generally settled with this state of affairs, nonetheless, there may be a considerable amount of cross-track unfold at 72 hours and past. In truth, the east-west unfold within the steerage at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF alongside the Japanese aspect of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble imply alongside the western aspect. The general steerage envelope has shifted barely westward this cycle, and the NHC monitor has been nudged in that route and lies simply east of the assorted consensus aids. Given the unfold within the steerage and the nonetheless shifting dynamical fashions, further changes to the monitor forecast could also be wanted in subsequent advisories.


The shear that has been plaguing Ian is forecast to proceed to lower over the following day or two whereas the cyclone strikes over the nice and cozy waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This could permit for strengthening, with regular to speedy intensification (RI) fairly doable as soon as an interior core turns into established. Though the up-to-date NHC forecast is simply shy of forecasting RI (30 kt or better improve over 24 h) throughout any 24-h interval over the following few days, it requires a 45-kt improve in wind velocity between 24 and 72 hours, and Since Ian just isn’t anticipated to stay over Cuba lengthy, little weakening is predicted because of that land interplay, and the forecast once more reveals Ian as a serious hurricane over the Japanese Gulf when it’s approaching the west coast of Florida.

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